Pepper Market Review Week 13 2025 and Field trip

Since the entire crop is currently held by farmers, predicting their selling behavior is challenging. Local collectors anticipate some sales before the rainy season begins in June, as they are concerned about mold formation in their warehouses due to climate change.

During our recent field trip to Daknong, Daklak, and Bin Phuouc, we focused on speaking with laborers engaged in harvesting. Most laborers indicated that the 2025 yield is comparatively lower. Major collectors estimate the crop to be around 150,000 metric tons this year.lwher as some pegs it at 170,000 mts. Factoring in carry-over from previous years and imports from Brazil, Cambodia, Indonesia, and Laos, Vietnam should have approximately 235,000 metric tons available for export. The actual quantity available for sale remains to be seen.

We anticipate the market to fluctuate narrowly between 158,000 and 162,000 Vietnam Dongs per kilo until the harvest concludes by the end of April 2025. Although there is continued interest from Chinese buyers for both white and black pepper, no significant business has materialized. The relatively low import volume from China last year is a potential risk, and their re-entry into the market could trigger a rally.

We observed new pepper plantations in Daklak, likely spurred by the sustained increase in pepper prices.